US dollar declines, metals generally rise; LME lead, NYMEX gold and SHFE gold rise over 1%; ferrous metals series in the doldrums [[Overnight market]]

SMM April 29 Report:

Metal Market:

Overnight, metals in both domestic and overseas markets generally rose, with SHFE tin being the sole decliner, dropping by 0.23%. SHFE nickel led the gains among domestic base metals with a 0.43% increase. LME lead led the gains in the overseas market with a 1.67% increase, while LME nickel rose by 0.9%. The gains of other metals fluctuated slightly.

Most metals in the ferrous metals series declined, with iron ore being the sole riser, increasing by 0.57%. HRC fell by 0.55%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 1.57%, and coke fell by 0.73%.

In the precious metals sector, supported by bargain-hunting buying, COMEX gold rose by 1.71%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.2%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 1.57%, and SHFE silver rose by 0.48%.

Overnight closing prices as of 6:46 a.m. on April 29

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Macro Front

Domestic Aspects:

[Four Ministries Jointly Voice on Stabilizing Employment and the Economy] ① Zhao Chenxin, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): China will introduce and implement measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high-quality development; ② Yu Jiadong, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: In Q1, 3.08 million new jobs were created in urban areas nationwide; ③ Sheng Qiuping, Ministry of Commerce: The implementation of the trade-in policy for consumer goods has collectively boosted consumption by over 720 billion yuan; ④ Zou Lan, People's Bank of China (PBOC): RRR cuts and interest rate cuts will be implemented in a timely manner based on domestic and overseas economic conditions and the operation of financial markets. 》Click to view details

[Pan Gongsheng: Will Implement Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policy to Promote High-Quality Development of China's Economy] The State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10 a.m. today. Zhao Chenxin, Deputy Director of the NDRC, Yu Jiadong, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Sheng Qiuping, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Commerce, and Zou Lan, Deputy Governor of the PBOC, introduced policy measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high-quality development, and answered questions from reporters. Zhao Chenxin, NDRC: China will introduce and implement measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high-quality development; Yu Jiadong, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: In Q1, 3.08 million new jobs were created in urban areas nationwide; Sheng Qiuping, Ministry of Commerce: The implementation of the trade-in policy for consumer goods has collectively boosted consumption by over 720 billion yuan; Zou Lan, PBOC: RRR cuts and interest rate cuts will be implemented in a timely manner based on domestic and overseas economic conditions and the operation of financial markets. 》Click to view details

US Dollar Aspects:

The US dollar fell by 0.69% overnight as investors cautiously awaited further news on US trade policies and prepared for a week packed with economic data that could provide initial indications of whether US trade policies are having an impact. As US policies have shaken confidence in the reliability of US assets, the US dollar is on track for its largest monthly decline since last July.

Investors are also awaiting the release of the US April employment report on Friday, which is expected to show continued job growth, albeit at a significantly slower pace than a month ago. Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, have indicated their willingness to cut interest rates if risks to economic growth become apparent. However, most officials seem more inclined to first determine the impact of tariff policies on real economy indicators such as inflation and employment before taking action. This week, the US will also release Q1 GDP data and the core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, while Europe will release GDP and preliminary inflation data. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Other Currency Aspects:

The euro fell by 0.4% against the pound to 0.8503 pounds after news emerged on Monday of a widespread power outage in large parts of Spain.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan will set monetary policy on Thursday. No policy changes are expected, but the market will focus on the outlook and how policymakers plan to respond to the uncertain economic environment, especially as US-Japan trade negotiations are expected to involve currency issues.

Macro Aspects:

Today, data including the initial value of the US March wholesale inventories monthly rate, the US April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, the US March JOLTs job openings, the eurozone March seasonally adjusted money supply M3 annual rate, the eurozone April Economic Sentiment Index, the eurozone April Industrial Sentiment Index, the final value of the eurozone April Consumer Confidence Index, and the Germany May Gfk Consumer Confidence Index will be released.

In addition, on April 29, the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Japan will be closed for the Showa Day holiday.

Crude Oil Aspects:

Oil prices in both markets fell overnight, with US crude dropping by 1.79% and Brent crude falling by 1.93%. Economic concerns triggered by global trade conflicts have put pressure on demand. John Evans, an analyst at brokerage firm PVM, said that trade conflicts are dominating investor sentiment, influencing oil price trends, overshadowing the impact of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran and internal divisions within the OPEC+ alliance. Some OPEC+ members are expected to recommend accelerating production increases for the second consecutive month at the May 5 meeting.

Aldo Spanjer, an analyst at BNP Paribas, said in a report: "Since our forecast last month, market sentiment has turned more bearish, with more aggressive OPEC+ production easing—and the accompanying doubts about OPEC unity—being the main changes." BNP Paribas expects Brent crude prices to be in the high end of the $60 per barrel range in Q2 this year. (Wenhua Comprehensive)